These are very tough times for the glass industry. Not a day goes by when our e-news service, USGNN.com™, doesn’t include at least one plant closing or company lay-off. Lack of access to credit and capital, along with greatly reduced demand, has led to the most difficult economic environment I have seen in my 27 years of covering the glass industry—even worse than the infamous 1991.
There are a few things that make what we are going through even more challenging than it was 17 years ago. In 1991, there was little work, but never did we see the wide-scale cancellation or postponement of work already in progress or contracted that we now see. Some major fabricators have gone from having so much work that they required long lead times for delivery to having so little work that they’ve closed plants and laid-off workers. This situation is particularly egregious because we know that those same companies passed up other jobs, or saw customers move elsewhere, due to their long lead times. In short, the work they passed on went elsewhere, now their jobs have cancelled and it’s too late to get the other work back.
Things aren’t faring much better for contract glaziers. As Tom Niepokoj, vice president of sales for Harmon Inc., says in our forecast article in the January USGlass: “Our backlog is solid through the end of the third quarter of calendar year 2009. The fourth quarter and beyond is where we’re scratching our heads …” That about sums it up as many of them struggle to get through this downturn.
Our country is different than it was in 1991. The cable news networks blare gloom-and-doom on a 24-hour basis, consumers reduce their spending, banks don’t lend and no one can or wants to buy anything.
The biggest difference between then and now is that we have lost our faith in ourselves. Compare Roosevelt’s message of the 1930s “that we have nothing to fear but fear itself ” to today’s message, from both sides of the aisle, that financial Armageddon is but one moment away.
Yet, despite all the economic hardship, I remain confident in the glass industry. We will come through and survive this very difficult time. Why? Not so much because of who we are but because of what we make. Our industry is not going away. When buildings are erected and houses are built again, they still will be full of glass. We are not losing our industry to new materials or technology, like the travel agents did during the last decade. Glass is here to stay. The people who make it, enhance it and install it have to make sure they are too. This is the time for cost containment and good credit and collection policies. Both are essential to weathering the storm.
So happy New Year. Please remember that in the grand scheme of things our most important “possessions” are not really things at all—they are the God we worship, the people we love, the health we have and the education and memories we carry with us. Now without those, we’d really have nothing at all.
Friday, January 23, 2009
Monday, November 3, 2008
Why AGRSS Matters: Part I
The following took place on Friday, October 3, 2008, on State Route 1 in Spotsylvania County, Va.:
I was riding down the road catching up with my old friend, Frank Baitman, whom I’ve known since college. Frank’s gone on to have quite a career: Fulbright scholar, former VP of IBM, president of a number of multi-national companies with a broad variety of experience—quite the intelligent, experienced guy.
Frank also loves photography and, many years ago, supplemented his income while in grad school by taking pictures of auto glass installations for the magazine at which I worked. He became familiar with NAGS® numbers and pricing, parts and proper installations and the issues of auto glass safety.
As we were riding down the road, Frank asked me if the auto glass industry had changed much since his picture-taking days in the late 1980s. “Oh yes,” I replied, and explained the current dynamics of the industry, the influence of insurance companies, the rise of the mega-chains, etc. I told him there had been a number of industry shake-outs since the 1980s and the one bright spot was that those companies still in business have increased in their levels of professionalism and proficiency. The auto glass industry, I declared, had become much more professional in the past twenty years.
I was riding down the road catching up with my old friend, Frank Baitman, whom I’ve known since college. Frank’s gone on to have quite a career: Fulbright scholar, former VP of IBM, president of a number of multi-national companies with a broad variety of experience—quite the intelligent, experienced guy.
Frank also loves photography and, many years ago, supplemented his income while in grad school by taking pictures of auto glass installations for the magazine at which I worked. He became familiar with NAGS® numbers and pricing, parts and proper installations and the issues of auto glass safety.
As we were riding down the road, Frank asked me if the auto glass industry had changed much since his picture-taking days in the late 1980s. “Oh yes,” I replied, and explained the current dynamics of the industry, the influence of insurance companies, the rise of the mega-chains, etc. I told him there had been a number of industry shake-outs since the 1980s and the one bright spot was that those companies still in business have increased in their levels of professionalism and proficiency. The auto glass industry, I declared, had become much more professional in the past twenty years.
I’d barely completed the sentence when we were passed on the right by an old, brown sedan sporting dents and dings all over it. It had a wobbly front right side and the backseat was almost unrecognizable as it was filled with what looked like garbage up to the middle of the backlite. Attached to the back fender with some sort of handmade wood carrier was a windshield just riding along outside about 8 inches from the ground with a sign that said “AUTO GLASS” and a Virginia phone number (Note: We've removed the last four digits of the phone number from the photo.)
We pulled up behind the car and took some pictures. Frank looked over to me and said “You know, Deb, to a lot of consumers that guy is the auto glass industry.”
When I got back to my office I called the number on the sign and asked about windshield replacement. A man named Otto answered and, in broken English, told me that he could replace my windshield. He said he took all types of insurance. I specifically asked about State Farm and Erie and he said, yes, he did work for those companies.
I told Otto that I might want to come to his shop and have my windshield replaced. “No, no,” he said, “we just open. I come to you.”
“Do you have a shop?” I asked.
“We come to you. Give me your address. I be there tomorrow,” he replied.
I asked if he had certified technicians and he said yes. When I asked who they were certified by, he wanted to know why I was asking.
I said I had seen on the web that I should ask for certified techs when I had my windshield replaced.
”But we are not on the web,” Otto said. “not on the web. Don’t worry about certified. Everyone certified me.”
We pulled up behind the car and took some pictures. Frank looked over to me and said “You know, Deb, to a lot of consumers that guy is the auto glass industry.”
When I got back to my office I called the number on the sign and asked about windshield replacement. A man named Otto answered and, in broken English, told me that he could replace my windshield. He said he took all types of insurance. I specifically asked about State Farm and Erie and he said, yes, he did work for those companies.
I told Otto that I might want to come to his shop and have my windshield replaced. “No, no,” he said, “we just open. I come to you.”
“Do you have a shop?” I asked.
“We come to you. Give me your address. I be there tomorrow,” he replied.
I asked if he had certified technicians and he said yes. When I asked who they were certified by, he wanted to know why I was asking.
I said I had seen on the web that I should ask for certified techs when I had my windshield replaced.
”But we are not on the web,” Otto said. “not on the web. Don’t worry about certified. Everyone certified me.”
* * *
People occasionally ask me why I am so involved with and passionate about the AGRSS Council and what it is doing. It’s because my friend Frank is right. To many people, Otto remains the face of the auto glass industry. And the people in the professional auto glass industry who I care deeply about, for whom I have worked more than 28 years, have to compete with the Ottos of the world every day. They might even watch their insurance work go to him with pricing that only an Otto can meet. And I wonder, too, how many networks refer their work to him.
AGRSS is the best greatest hope our industry has. It’s come a long way in its ten-year existence and it has the potential for greatness. But no one is going to raise the lowest common denominator of professionalism other than our industry itself. The AGRSS conference opens in Vegas this week and it will unveil an ambitious program of self-regulation coupled with third-party validation unlike anything ever produced by an industry for itself.
It’s my hope that, in the next few years, all quality auto glass replacement companies will be AGRSS-registered so that when Frank and I ride down the road behind an auto glass truck, it will be the face of true professionalism with a strong commitment to safety.
AGRSS is the best greatest hope our industry has. It’s come a long way in its ten-year existence and it has the potential for greatness. But no one is going to raise the lowest common denominator of professionalism other than our industry itself. The AGRSS conference opens in Vegas this week and it will unveil an ambitious program of self-regulation coupled with third-party validation unlike anything ever produced by an industry for itself.
It’s my hope that, in the next few years, all quality auto glass replacement companies will be AGRSS-registered so that when Frank and I ride down the road behind an auto glass truck, it will be the face of true professionalism with a strong commitment to safety.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Glasstec Leaves Questions
Though glasstec—the ginormous* bienniel glass show in Düsseldorf, Germany is now history, it left behind two questions just begging for answers. The first (and most important from a business perspective) is that of a central theme emerging from the halls, the show floor and within the industry. Next month, USGlass will provide extensive coverage that explains exactly what those themes were and why they are important. In the meantime, you can check out our coverage of the event, including extensive video, at our daily news site, www.usgnn.com.
The second question (and the one that I find more interesting from a sociological point of view) is: “What does the rest of the world think of the United States?” Well, this year, the answer to that question is in the questions that the Europeans were asking of us. glasstec 2008 proved quite an eye-opener in that respect. Just about everyone I met, from every walk of life, asked a variation of the following questions:
• Who is going to win the U.S. presidential race?
• What the heck happened to your (country’s) economy?
• You know all the world’s economic problems are your fault, don’t you?
• How are you going to fix it?
So a few thoughts on all these questions. Assuming we don’t have a 2000 election redux by the time you read this, we will have a new president. I hope we make the right decision because it is very evident to me that the whole world is not only watching, they are involved. The importance of this election to the entire world is obvious by the comments I received. And while it gives me some pride to think the U.S. is such a powerful world leader, it makes me hope we chose the right guy.
Second, the blame for the current worldwide economic situation has been placed squarely at the doorstep of the United States. We are seen as creating the problems around the globe and we are expected to fix it.
The world is interconnected as it never has been before. And every day it gets more so. Let’s hope our leaders, who ever they are, can inspire, solve problems and move us forward—for the good of the entire world.
Regards,
Deb
*For those you purists who scoff, ginormous is now a legitimate word; along with “smack down,” “crunk” and “DVR”, it entered Webster’s Dictionary last year. But, as a Webster’s editor points out, you don’t have to use it if you don’t want to.
The second question (and the one that I find more interesting from a sociological point of view) is: “What does the rest of the world think of the United States?” Well, this year, the answer to that question is in the questions that the Europeans were asking of us. glasstec 2008 proved quite an eye-opener in that respect. Just about everyone I met, from every walk of life, asked a variation of the following questions:
• Who is going to win the U.S. presidential race?
• What the heck happened to your (country’s) economy?
• You know all the world’s economic problems are your fault, don’t you?
• How are you going to fix it?
So a few thoughts on all these questions. Assuming we don’t have a 2000 election redux by the time you read this, we will have a new president. I hope we make the right decision because it is very evident to me that the whole world is not only watching, they are involved. The importance of this election to the entire world is obvious by the comments I received. And while it gives me some pride to think the U.S. is such a powerful world leader, it makes me hope we chose the right guy.
Second, the blame for the current worldwide economic situation has been placed squarely at the doorstep of the United States. We are seen as creating the problems around the globe and we are expected to fix it.
The world is interconnected as it never has been before. And every day it gets more so. Let’s hope our leaders, who ever they are, can inspire, solve problems and move us forward—for the good of the entire world.
Regards,
Deb
*For those you purists who scoff, ginormous is now a legitimate word; along with “smack down,” “crunk” and “DVR”, it entered Webster’s Dictionary last year. But, as a Webster’s editor points out, you don’t have to use it if you don’t want to.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Glasstec Day Two
Every day at glasstec is really two days--the business sessions from 9 a.m until 6 p.m. and the evening activities which include various receptions, dinners and the obligatory visit to the Altstadt (Old Town) area.
The center of the glasstec universe in the Old Town area is the GPD Pub. Machinery manufacturer Glaston hosts Glass Performance Days (GPD) every other year in Tampere, Finland. It rents out an Altstadt pub for the evenings of glasstec.
Though the Euro may be the currency of Germany, and U.S. Dollars still have some value, the real currency of glasstec are the drink tickets for use in the GPD pub. There is a brisk trade in GPD dollars at the hall worthy of the best black market. And the keeper of those drinks tickets, Glaston's Jorma Vitkala, is a very popular guy around here.
(Now just because I am writing about the pub --shown in photo above by Brian Pitman-, don't think I spent my whole evening there or anything like that. No sir-ee. In fact, I haven't even made it over there yet. From the sounds of it though, every one else has.) A visit to the GPD pub has become a glasstec right of passage.
Day two was filled with visits to many stands and many visitors to our stand. Russ Ebeid of Guardian stopped by and told me he had a hot story, so I plan to try and find him today. If stalk him I must, I will. Larry Johnson of Edgetech explained what it took to get permission to use a replica of a window from an a recently completed job in Abu Dhabi. The exquisite replica, at 70% the original size, sits in their booth.
AGC's stand has been very crowded, the result of their recent new product announcement, as has Glasslam's as well, which features a Rubik's cube about 50 times its original size, though the Porsche standing on glass has garnered much attention, as has glasstec's own version of the bridge to nowhere--the total glass bridge that visitors continue to walk under and over.
With two days in one glasstec leaves little time for sleeping. There will be time enough time for that on the way home.
Deb
P.S.--anyone with extra GPD drink tickets can drop them off in Hall 13, stand C73 which is, coincidentally, the USGlass stand. We will take it upon ourselves to see they get used.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Glasstec Times 20
The only thing that could overcome the intense jetlag that overtakes me on trips to Europe is the intense excitement of glasstec. The world's biggest trade fair for the glass and glazing industry is held every two years in Dusseldorf, Germany and attracts the industry from around the world. It is the show's 20th anniversary.
In addition to final stand set-up, yesterday's events included the opening ceremonies as well a number of press conferences and meetings.
One of the nicest part of glasstec for me is getting to see a number of people with whom I have acquaintance around the world, including members of the world glazing press. It's always great to see colleagues who publish glass-related magazines from other parts of the world.
The number of exhibitors at glasstec is up this year compared to 2006. It seems to me that the number of U.S. visitors, as well as those from Asia, is down. (My colleague Charles Cumpston thinks the U.S. contingent is about the same in size so we will have to wait for the final numbers to see who is right.) While a reduction in U.S. attendance would be understandable, we think the increase in glass shows in Asia might be enabling attendees from that part of the world to stay closer to home.
U.S. visitors walking the massive trade show floors (that's right, plural, think GlassBuild times 5) included Bill O'Keeffe and his group from SAFTI as well as Cliff Monroe and his colleague from Arch who stopped by our booth the first day five minutes after the show opened. Doug Canfied of Casso-Solar is exhibiting in the North American pavillion, and said he had a good day yesterday.
The weather hasn't been too bad. Monday was a beautiful day and for the show's start yesterday it was normal Dusseldorf weather--a bit rainy and overcast. But it doesn't matter much since we are not outside any way.
If you are at glasstec, please stop by our stand in Hall 13 C73. Here's a video review of Day One. More later.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Promising Start
He seemed like a nice, sincere young man, about the age a son of mine would be. So I was trying to be positive. “Surely,” I had opined, “ there must be something good about Vegas. After all there seem to be lots of pretty single girls here…”
“No,” he said sadly. “All the women around here are –look, you seem like a nice lady, so let me say it this way, they are all ambitious. All the women around here are looking for a .. How do I say it? .. a sugar daddy. When you meet them the first thing they ask is ‘what are you going to do for me? Will you buy me a house? Will you get me a ---let me say it this way--will you pay for a medical procedure to enhance my looks? (I told you his English was good.)
Not quite expecting that answer and not sure what to say, I said nothing. It was my fault, I’d asked the question.
“They are all show and promise,” he said shaking his head “They are all show and promise but they leave you with nothing,” he repeated as I paid him and sprinted it out of the cab.
Show and promise. Got me thinking.
People go to shows for the promise of what that show may offer: the new customer to sell; the new product see; the new technique to bring back home; the newest information to learn. Shows bring promise and day one of GlassBuild America was no exception.
There were notable changes from the 2007 event in Atlanta and 2006 when it was last in Vegas. The number of exhibitors is down significantly, and many exhibitors had rented smaller amounts of space than in previous years. Companies involved primarily in residential fenestration are scarce, and the machinery displays are much smaller than in previous year. The presence of actual glass manufacturers and major fabricators is also light, but that was not unique to this year’s event.
Yet there was promise. The number of attendees on Day One exceeded the dire predictions of most. The floor was very busy for the main hours in the middle of the day and some exhibitors, such as Contact Industries and Erdmann, had neat new products and heavy traffic all day. Major sponsor Edgetech did a great job marketing its “Edgetech University” in a stand complete with grammar school writing tablets and employees dressed in shirts that said “Edgetech University.” They always do a great job getting their message out.
So on a day when the Dow plunged in a downward spiral and cable TV networks screamed gloom and doom, there was at least in Las Vegas for a few hours, show and promise.
“No,” he said sadly. “All the women around here are –look, you seem like a nice lady, so let me say it this way, they are all ambitious. All the women around here are looking for a .. How do I say it? .. a sugar daddy. When you meet them the first thing they ask is ‘what are you going to do for me? Will you buy me a house? Will you get me a ---let me say it this way--will you pay for a medical procedure to enhance my looks? (I told you his English was good.)
Not quite expecting that answer and not sure what to say, I said nothing. It was my fault, I’d asked the question.
“They are all show and promise,” he said shaking his head “They are all show and promise but they leave you with nothing,” he repeated as I paid him and sprinted it out of the cab.
Show and promise. Got me thinking.
People go to shows for the promise of what that show may offer: the new customer to sell; the new product see; the new technique to bring back home; the newest information to learn. Shows bring promise and day one of GlassBuild America was no exception.
There were notable changes from the 2007 event in Atlanta and 2006 when it was last in Vegas. The number of exhibitors is down significantly, and many exhibitors had rented smaller amounts of space than in previous years. Companies involved primarily in residential fenestration are scarce, and the machinery displays are much smaller than in previous year. The presence of actual glass manufacturers and major fabricators is also light, but that was not unique to this year’s event.
Yet there was promise. The number of attendees on Day One exceeded the dire predictions of most. The floor was very busy for the main hours in the middle of the day and some exhibitors, such as Contact Industries and Erdmann, had neat new products and heavy traffic all day. Major sponsor Edgetech did a great job marketing its “Edgetech University” in a stand complete with grammar school writing tablets and employees dressed in shirts that said “Edgetech University.” They always do a great job getting their message out.
So on a day when the Dow plunged in a downward spiral and cable TV networks screamed gloom and doom, there was at least in Las Vegas for a few hours, show and promise.
Monday, October 6, 2008
Strip of Nervousness
“I hate it here,” the taxi driver tells me on the way from the airport to the Hilton yesterday afternoon. Okay,.I think, it’s a short ride, I’ll bite. “If you hate it so much, and don’t mind me asking,” I say, “then why are you here?”
My question elicits a long response. He tells me he moved here from Turkey three years ago and I congratulate him on his English, which is excellent. He came here because he heard Vegas was always busy, and there was always work. He bought a house right away with “one of those mortgages on the news now”. But, just yesterday, he says, they announced the tourism dollars are down 50 percent from the same month last year. There is no work. He is making half what he made last year at this time. “I don’t drink, I don’t smoke, I don’t gamble and I now I have a house I can’t sell,” he says “ I hate it. I am very worried. I don’t sleep so good at night.”
Welcome to the club. There’s an aspect of nervousness and unease among those attending the GlassBuild America Show in Vegas this week. The effects of the economy can be seen everywhere—even in the cab you take from the airport.
It will be an interesting show, I think, so check back for more reports this week. I don’t know whether to feel really good or really bad about the following fact, but I am going to share it with you anyway: this is actually my 27th consecutive year of attending this show. Sometimes I was working at it, sometimes exhibiting, one or two years just attending but I haven’t missed a one since the first I attended in 1981 when I was barely out of college.. (Besides my esteemed colleague, Charles Cumpston, who has the exact same record, I’d be curious to know if there’s anyone else out there who has a longer consecutive attendance.).
I remember when the show was in March (much better I think for the industry), when it went to family-friendly cities like San Antonio and all the stories I have from things that have happened during it. (I’ll put them in that hypothetical book I write some day.).
So what, besides a nervous industry on a nervous strip, will we find this year?
I lean back in the cab. We are stuck in traffic due to an accident and my short trip has gotten longer. I look at the cabby and around the cab. He has no wedding ring, no pictures of a wife or kids around. “Okay,” I say, “you don’t gamble, you don’t drink and you don’t smoke, but what about girls? Surely Las Vegas is good place to meet women, no?”
Oh he gave me an answer all right, but I’ll save it for next time….
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
